With fewer than 50 days until this October’s referendum, a new poll suggests Albertans remain entrenched in long-held positions tied to the idea of separating from Canada.
The Research Co. poll from August found 74 per cent of respondents would vote for Alberta to remain in Canada, while 22 per cent would vote for the Government of Alberta to start the legal process required to hold a second, binding referendum on leaving the country.
Support for the idea of a binding referendum was highest among Albertans aged 35 to 54, at 27 per cent. Twenty per cent of Albertans aged 55 and older voiced support for a further referendum, while 18 per cent of those aged 18 to 34 agreed with the idea.
Public opinion polls, including for CBC News, have consistently shown a majority of Albertans support staying in Canada.
“Even though we still have a few weeks left to go in this campaign, people seem to be very set in their ways,” Mario Canseco, president of the Vancouver-based polling firm, told CBC News.
“This is definitely not a situation that has winning conditions for the side that wants to separate.”
The results come from an online survey of 750 likely voters in Alberta, conducted by Research Co. between Aug. 24 and 26. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Canseco asks the question around separation about once per year, tracing back to Rachel Notley’s time as Alberta premier. Numbers typically range around 25 to 30 per cent who say they like the idea of secession, he said.
Those numbers track with other polling. In April, a poll directed by Janet Brown Opinion Research for CBC News found 27 per cent said they’d vote for separation, while 67 per cent said they’d vote against it.
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With time ticking toward the Oct. 19 referendum vote, federalist and separatist groups have been ramping up their voter mobilization efforts.
But pollsters like Canseco have found there are few who don’t have their minds made up.
“There’s a tiny level of undecideds when we ask about the separation question — only four per cent,” Canseco said of his latest poll’s findings. “Usually, when you have an election or a referendum, the level of undecideds is higher — maybe 10 to 15 per cent.”
Though Research Co. found the idea of holding a binding vote on separation is “not resonating with the public,” the same can’t uniformly be said when it comes to the other ballots.
In addition to the separation question, October’s referendum includes five questions tied to immigration and four to constitutional reform.
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Ranging from 58 to 66 per cent, a majority of likely voters said they would vote “yes” on the five questions related to immigration, according to the poll.
“This is an issue that the government has really connected well on, because you do have people who maybe voted for the NDP in the last election of Alberta, who voted for the Liberals in the last election in Canada, who look at this as an interesting idea,” Canseco said.
The most popular of the proposals is the ballot question asking about requiring proof of citizenship when voting, with 66 per cent support.
On the lower end, 58 per cent said they’d be in favour of a law mandating only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and individuals with an “Alberta-approved” immigration status would be eligible for provincially-funded programs like health care and education.
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The federalist group Alberta’s Voice, run by political strategist Stephen Carter, is behind the “no to the nine” signs, encouraging voters to reject the ballot questions.
Carter said he believes people are starting to ask themselves what the nine other questions actually mean, and that will lead to a decline in support leading up to referendum day.
He doesn’t think most Albertans want the government to implement the kinds of policies he believes the questions will lead to.
“I think that as people become more aware of what these actual questions are asking, we’ll see the numbers start to drop,” he said.
“But for now, it’s fairly easy just to say yes to these questions, even while saying no to leaving Canada.”
The Research Co. poll found that public support was lower on the four questions tied to constitutional reform, ranging from 39 to 46 per cent support.
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Tanya Clemens, co-leader of the Alberta independence group Let Alberta Decide, said the higher support for the questions on constitutional reforms — compared to the separation question — shows a gap in understanding what a vote for independence promises to deliver.
“It was close to a majority wanting constitutional changes. I don’t know if they understand that by voting [to remain], it’s basically voting for status quo and for things to stay the same,” Clemens said.
“It doesn’t give Alberta any more leverage. So to me, it looks like there’s some more education that needs to happen.”
The poll also found that likely voters in Alberta thought the validity of the referendum as a “true representation of the wishes of the public” depends on voter turnout.
