Like Yogi Berra once said, “It ain’t over till it’s over” — a truism that’s providing some positivity for the Blue Jays and their fans, as Toronto makes a late-season drive for a playoff spot.
Toronto’s 2026 season has been a bumpy ride, as the defending American League (AL) champions have battled injuries and shown inconsistent play on the field. The team has not played to expectations, and has held a losing record for much of the year — including at present.
Yet the Blue Jays are, improbably, still in the mix of teams that could claim a playoff spot.
Toronto begins a three-game series in Cleveland on Tuesday that will give the Blue Jays a shot at moving up in the standings at a critical time.
“You have a chance to leave Cleveland with a playoff spot,” said Sho Alli, a host with Sportsnet 590 The Fan, underlining the importance of the next three games.
Here’s a look at how the Blue Jays have stayed in the hunt for a post-season berth.
Major League Baseball’s current playoff format sends 12 teams to the playoffs each year — six from the AL and six from the National League.
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The six post-season teams, in each of the respective leagues, will be made up of three division winners and three so-called wild cards (the teams with the best overall records, outside of the division winners).
The Blue Jays play in the AL East division, which is currently led by the Tampa Bay Rays. The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox are next in the standings.
If the season ended today, the Rays would be in the playoffs as a division winner. But the Yankees and the Red Sox, with the next-best records in the wider AL, would hold two of the three wild-card spots, accordingly.
The Cleveland Guardians lead the chase for the third wild-card spot at the moment.
Along with Toronto, the Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners are within five games of Cleveland. All are vying for that same wild-card spot — despite the fact they are mostly underwater in the standings.
“It’s kind of crazy just how bad the American League has been,” said Bob Nightengale, MLB columnist for USA Today, who says it shouldn’t be the case that sub-.500 teams could be headed to the post-season.
The Jays, at least, are doing better lately, having played strong baseball in August, going 17-11 and pushing their overall record on the season to 68-70 ahead of Tuesday’s games.
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The Guardians, meanwhile, went 13-13 during the month of August. Cleveland had been in a tie for the third wild-card spot when the month started and now stands marginally ahead of Baltimore and Toronto as September begins.
Alli said that Cleveland has a strong starting rotation, including Gavin Williams — a pitcher with one of the highest strikeout totals in the majors, who’s slated to start Tuesday’s game against Toronto.
He also points to the Canadian closer they have at the back end of their bullpen, Cade Smith, as a concern if the Blue Jays see him on the mound at the end of a game.
Nightengale said the Guardians are serious about competing for a post-season opportunity, having made moves at the trade deadline to bring in outfielder Jo Adell and pitcher Foster Griffin — among others — to make their team better.
But he noted it’s not only a one-on-one fight the Jays face as they try to climb up in the standings.
“Don’t forget Baltimore is in there, too.”
The Jays and Orioles will face each other in a separate three-game series later in the month.
Toronto will also have a September series with the Rangers, who pulled even with the Blue Jays in the standings on Monday night.
Toronto’s own starting pitching ranks have thinned this year, with injuries derailing and disrupting the seasons of multiple hurlers — including Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage.
At the moment, the Blue Jays are banking on ace Dylan Cease, the recently acquired José Soriano and veteran Max Scherzer to keep the team in contention. The remainder of the rotation is in flux, amid injuries on the pitching staff.
Cease is in a chase for a Cy Young Award, and has been dominant when on the mound this season. Soriano has been solid during his brief Jays tenure to date and Scherzer has been heating up in August.
Recent addition Spencer Arrighetti, who has struggled in his first two starts with Toronto, will be on the mound for the series opener on Tuesday. Cease and Soriano will also get starts against Cleveland.
Toronto will also rely on the Louis Varland-led bullpen to prevent close games from slipping away to the Guardians.
The Blue Jays have lacked power at the plate this season, with the team ranking near the bottom of MLB in terms of home runs hit.
But a few of the Jays’ hitters have started to send the ball out of the park more regularly, in recent games — and that hasn’t been happening prior to this point in the season.
Outfielder Nathan Lukes hit five home runs in August (including four in his last nine games), as did catcher Alejandro Kirk. Slugger George Springer had two homers, with the round-trippers coming in back-to-back games at the end of the month.
Franchise star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had a difficult year at the plate, hitting just seven homers this season. But a ball he hit to the outfield at 116 miles per hour on the weekend suggests his power hasn’t deserted him — even if his homer total is not where he wants it to be.
A continued power surge could be plenty helpful for a Blue Jays squad that has also scored among the fewest runs of any MLB ballclub this year.
