As the Middle East war stretches past the six-week mark and fuel prices have more than doubled, costs are starting to be passed onto consumers. One industry seeing the swift impacts of this is about to hit peak season: air travel.
Flying was already getting more expensive due to inflation. Now, something else is happening — it’s getting more unpredictable.
“The problem, of course, is that none of us are prophets,” says Max Johnson, a Winnipeg-based tourism consultant who owned a travel company for 35 years.
“It’s a mad world,” he said. “Which goes to the point of: Should we plan? And I think the answer to this is absolutely.”
CBC spoke with five experts about what might happen to the cost of air travel in the coming months. Here’s what they said.
Air fares rose eight per cent for international flights from January 2025 to March 2026 while domestic fares rose nearly 14 per cent in the same period, according to data from Flight Centre Canada, a retail travel agency network.
“Part of that is strong demand,” said Amra Durakovic, the company’s head of communications.
Canadians have continued to travel despite rising costs, Durakovic said, but are beginning to adjust some of their behaviour, either booking flights as much as six months in advance to lock in current prices — while others are waiting.
They are “hoping that prices will come down, which to be honest is a bit risky right now in this current landscape.”
How fuel surcharges could affect your travel plans
The short answer is maybe, but probably not. Airlines are dealing with rising jet fuel costs two main ways. Some are adding fuel surcharges of up to $60 to tickets and others are incorporating fuel costs into base fares.
Surcharges are generally a way of retailers to pass swiftly rising costs onto consumers without permanently upping prices. But several North American airlines have indicated they are adjusting fares based on demand and rising costs.
“When that happens, the odds of those fares coming back down when the price of oil … comes back to normal level are slim to none,” said John Gradek, a faculty lecturer on aviation management at McGill University in Montreal.
Fuel, typically airlines’ second largest cost after labour, accounts for about 27 per cent of operating expenses, according to Reuters. Prices have more than doubled since the conflict began, far outpacing a roughly 50 per cent rise in crude prices before the ceasefire.
But Gradek says it’s not the cost of fuel that worries airlines: It’s the supply of it.
“The incoming tsunami is gonna be availability of product,” Gradek said. “Carriers will cancel flights and it just cascades from there.”
Once airlines begin parking planes, he said that could lead to layoffs, which would lead to fewer available seats, a rise in unsatisfied demand and therefore a significant increase in prices.
The experts we spoke with were pretty unanimous: Booking now is safer than waiting, they said.
“We live in a world with turbulence that we’ve never seen before,” said Johnson.
“The only thing you can do is base a decision on now — not what we may think is going to happen next week, next month, next quarter. It may get better, it may get worse, we have no idea. But if you’re comfortable with the price, with the availability that you see now, book it and buy it.”
Fred Lazar, an associate economics professor at York University in Toronto, says airfare increases are likely to ripple forward over time: For every additional couple of weeks that fuel prices stay high, travellers can expect roughly another month of more expensive fares.
That means if current conditions persist, price hikes will keep extending into the later summer months — making it safer to book now for travel later in the season.
West Jet announced earlier this month it would be consolidating flights on several lower-demand routes, reducing its capacity by one per cent in April and three per cent in May.
“Those are flights being cancelled,” says Gradek. Most Canadian airlines rely on fuel from Canada, meaning they don’t have to worry as much about supply, but they are still feeling the rise in costs as oil price increases are global.
European and Asian airlines are the ones facing supply issues. German-based airline Lufthansa said this week grounding planes “may be unavoidable” as kerosene availability is already critical at some airports, particularly in Asia.
WestJet making adjustments as oil and gas prices remain high
In South Korea, low-cost carrier T’way Air said it plans to furlough some cabin crew without pay in May and June, according to a local report, making it among the first carriers to reduce staffing.
In Canada, airlines are legally required to get you to your destination within a certain time of the flight you booked. If your flight gets cancelled, you’ll be put on a different one, which could include a connection or even be through another carrier.
Johnson says airlines may start cutting or rerouting flights to parts of Eastern and Central Europe where jet fuel is harder to access, shifting passengers onto connections through major hubs like Frankfurt or Munich instead.
Yes — and flexibility matters more than ever, according to Durakovic.
Travelling off-season can make a significant difference. For example, Europe in peak summer tends to be expensive, while destinations in South America may offer better value at that time of year.
Airlines add surcharges, raise fares over fuel costs
Long-haul routes, particularly to parts of Asia and Europe, may be more volatile due to fuel costs and supply issues, which can make pricing less predictable.
Durakovic said Flight Centre has seen a rise in demand for the Canadian East Coast and destinations in Alberta, such as Banff, which she believes may be due to a reduction in travel to the U.S. from Canada in response to the U.S. trade war.
Gradek says it’s extremely rare for airlines to add new charges after a ticket is purchased, largely because of the public backlash it would trigger. However, in an extreme scenario — such as a dramatic spike in oil prices — airlines could invoke a “force majeure,” cancelling the original contract and requiring passengers to rebook at a new price.
Johnson says while he’s never seen that happen, he wouldn’t be surprised if it did in the coming months.
“These are just such brand new circumstances that I would say all bets are off,” he said. “We’ve never been in this situation before.”
