The Toronto Maple Leafs take the ice for the biggest game of their season Wednesday night, with a chance to push the Florida Panthers to the brink of elimination in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
For fans, the stress is seriously mounting.
As a quick recap, this is now a best-of-three series. The Leafs won the first two games at Scotiabank Arena, while the Panthers prevailed in Florida (maybe because fewer Leaf fans made the trip south.)
To get you ready for Game 5 (which starts at 7 p.m. ET) we’re checking back in with our resident Leaf fan, Adam Carter, who has spent the series oscillating between exhilaration and hurling expletives at his TV.
Adam, what’s your stress level on a scale of 0-10?
I’d put it at a 6.7 currently (sorry Leaf fans, I had to).
Though Game 4 was rough, Toronto remains in a good spot here. If the team manages to win Wednesday’s game at home it puts Florida on the brink of elimination, and that’s something many people (myself included) didn’t see happening in this series.
But if the team turns in another dreadful performance like Sunday night — and especially if Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner fail to elevate their games yet again in a key playoff matchup — then the Leafs run the risk of landing where they always seem to end up: on the outside looking in.
Maple Leafs and Panthers fans are confident ‘this is the year,’ but they can’t both be right
Yeah, but what do the sportscasters always say? A team isn’t in trouble until they lose on home ice. So we’re good, right? Right?
Home ice advantage has been a big deal throughout these playoffs, and this series has been no exception. But it’s not just a rowdy home-crowd boost — having last change has made a massive strategic difference for each coach.
Wait, explain that more for the bandwagon.
So in hockey, the home team gets what’s called “last change.” That means that during stoppages, the visiting team has to send out its players first, and the home team gets to choose what players it sends out in response. It might seem like a minor detail, but it can be a huge advantage.
For the first two games in Toronto, the Leafs sent out their top line of Matthews, Marner and Matthew Knies against the Panthers’ top unit led by Aleksander Barkov, and they largely won those minutes while neutralizing some of Florida’s biggest weapons.
But with the benefit of last change in games three and four, Panthers coach Paul Maurice was able to switch up his matchups — leaving the Leafs’ top guys to tangle with Florida’s excellent third unit, featuring (sigh) noted Leaf-killer Brad Marchand. The results were twofold: Florida’s third line has been much better against Toronto’s top guys, and The Leafs’ second line centred by John Tavares has not fared nearly as well against the Barkov unit.
Look for Leafs coach Craig Berube to prioritize those initial matchups once he has last change back in Toronto for game five, and here’s hoping it works.
#TheMoment Leafs fans serenaded the anthem singer on the subway
What are the signs of optimism?
It’s admittedly tough to feel optimistic after Sunday’s putrid fourth game. The one positive is that even though the Leafs lost, goaltender Joseph Woll looked great. He’d been struggling in this series since starting in relief of the injured Anthony Stolarz, but without Woll, the score would have been much worse.
Woll can absolutely steal a game or two if he’s locked in — and Toronto might need him to do just that in order to eliminate the Panthers. I’d be surprised if Stolarz ended up back in the net for this series, though the Leafs haven’t formally ruled him out.
Woll’s mom looks like such a wonderful fan. We can channel her optimism, right?
I mean, how could you not root for a supportive mom in the stands? And it’s not like everything is doom and gloom. If you told Leaf fans before this round started that they’d be playing Game 5 at home with the series tied against the defending Stanley Cup champs, they’d have taken that outcome every single time.
What are the signs that the Leafs are, as you’ve put it, “cursed?”
You mean aside from the fact that the team is still being tortured by Marchand on a second divisional rival, and the Panthers only had to give up a conditional second-round pick to get him? (I will never forgive Bruins GM Don Sweeny for this.)
Putting that indignity aside, Game 4 was yet another (bad) return to form for the Leafs, much like Game 5 against the Ottawa Senators — except this one was arguably even worse. It was reminiscent of the last time the Leafs played the Panthers in 2023, where they seemed hopelessly outmatched and outclassed. That the team’s power play has reverted back to its usual ice-cold playoff form is concerning, too.
What’s up with Auston Matthews?
I wish I knew. He seems to have been battling some sort of injury through most of the season, so maybe that’s still affecting him. Matthews has produced points in these playoffs (with 10 in 10 games), but only has two goals. Some have speculated that he hurt his hand blocking a shot in the Ottawa series.
Injured or not, that’s just not good enough for a guy who has been the most prolific regular-season scorer since he entered the league. This isn’t a new narrative either, as he has yet to take over a playoff series in the way he often dominates games in the regular season, seemingly scoring at will at times.
Matthews is one of the highest-paid players in the NHL, yet he can’t seem to hit the net with regularity lately. He has produced elite defensive results throughout much of this series, and is doing a lot of little things right — but if the Leafs are going to beat the Panthers, he has to score. The team desperately needs both Matthews and Marner to make their mark on this series.
We talked about how dirty this series might be. I think fans are seeing that, no?
Welcome to Florida Panthers hockey. Not only do they finish every check, but after most whistles you can expect to see a crosscheck, a little slash or an elbow. It’s a true war of attrition, and as a series goes on, all of those hacks and whacks start to compound.
But we’re kind of in on it, too…
Oh, I’m not going to pretend Toronto has solely been on the side of the angels here. Max Domi has definitely doled out a couple of cheap shots, and there have been some borderline hits from behind that undoubtedly have left Florida fans grumbling. But this is a style of play that suits the Panthers more than it does the Leafs in the long run.
Watching the games, I’m often confused about what gets called a penalty and what doesn’t. How would you rate the officiating in this series?
And this, sadly, is emblematic of the maddening inconsistency that is NHL officiating, especially in the playoffs. What is or isn’t a penalty seems to change from game to game, or even period to period or shift to shift, sometimes.
I’m one of those people who wish the refs would just call what’s in the rulebook, but barring that, it would be nice if they would at least call things consistently. More serious infractions have gone by the wayside (like Sam Bennett’s “accidental” shot to the head of Anthony Stolarz, which likely took him out of the series), while milder infractions (like Domi barely touching Marchand in Game 1) are called.
And it’s not just phantom calls or missed infractions against the Leafs. That embellishment call against Panthers forward Evan Rodrigues from Game 4 was ludicrous. I haven’t been impressed by the officiating whatsoever — but I never really expected to be, honestly.
The series schedule from here on out:
