Pierre Poilievre is trying to win over young people when he says he needs the “biggest voter turnout in Canadian history” to reverse a Liberal victory some polls suggest is a foregone conclusion, political experts say.
Newly eligible voters, specifically men, are most likely to support Poilievre’s Conservatives — but they’re also the least likely demographic to vote according to historical trends, said David Coletto, founder and CEO of Ottawa-based polling and market research firm Abacus Data.
“He needs, I think, an extraordinary level of turnout,” Coletto said.
“He needs to find a way to motivate younger, less reliable, less likely voters, people who may never have voted in an election before.”
CBC’s Poll Tracker, which compiles publicly available polls, has the Conservatives with a level of popularity — 38.7 per cent — that would normally translate into a majority government come election day.
But voter support has coalesced around the Liberals and Conservatives and turned this election into a two-party race, polling suggests. The Liberals have 42.5 per cent support, according to the aggregator.
Poilievre made his pitch for a record turnout at a Calgary rally on Friday. Organizers say more than 3,000 people heard his call.
“Are you going to reach out to all the people who may have given up on life and tell them that there’s hope if they vote for a change?” Poilievre told the crowd.
“We need the biggest voter turnout in Canadian history to deliver the change that Canadians need.”
In order to win, Coletto said the Conservatives must overcome the advantage the Liberals have among older voters, the demographic most likely to vote.
In 2015, Justin Trudeau became prime minister in part because he won over young voters, Coletto noted.
“And so in a way — ironically, actually — Mr. Poilievre is trying to replicate the success of Trudeau 10 years ago in getting those less reliable non-voters out this time.”
The Conservatives are likely hoping the polls are undercounting their support, something that occurred in the two previous elections, Coletto said.
But he added that the polls missing by one or two percentage points again likely won’t change the outcome of this year’s election.
“The only variable left is to outhustle and out-turnout your competitors.”
The Conservatives won the popular vote in the 2021 and 2019 elections, but lost those elections as well.
Amanda Galbraith, a Conservative strategist, doesn’t think the party’s appeal for a record turnout is remarkable. She says every party is doing a get-out-the-vote push right now, and this is just how the Conservatives are going about it.
She also believes, however, the Conservatives are targeting a demographic less likely to see voting as a duty.
“It’s one thing to engage [with young people],” said Galbraith, co-founder and partner of the communications firm Oyster Group. “It’s another thing to get them out to vote or get their friends and colleagues out to vote.”
Political parties trying to bring down incumbent governments generally benefit from higher turnouts, as it usually shows voters’ appetite for change, said Éric Grenier, the polling analyst who runs CBC’s Poll Tracker and founded thewrit.ca.
“But I question whether this is a normal election. There’s obviously been a high engagement in the election,” he said, noting the trade war caused by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Elections Canada said an estimated 7.3 million Canadians — a record — cast their ballots during the advanced voting period. That’s a 25 per cent increase from 2021.
Geneviève Tellier, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, finds it puzzling Poilievre would call for a record turnout in Calgary, a Conservative stronghold, as it would mainly have the effect of padding the party’s margin of victory there — aside from the few seats the Liberals are aiming to flip.
Tellier suggested Poilievre doesn’t expect to win the election anymore.
“Why do you appeal to voters that won’t change the numbers of ridings you will win?” she asked. “If the objective is to increase the [percentage] of popular support [that makes sense but] if the strategy is to win more seats, then go to Ontario.”
The Conservatives’ decision to visit Calgary in the final days of the campaign raised eyebrows from some party operatives who spoke to CBC News Friday.
Two of them said the party should be making a play for swing voters elsewhere since there’s little time before Monday’s election.
The quick rally, held at a private jet hangar near Calgary International Airport, was billed as a “whistle stop” on the way to B.C., a province crucial to the party’s electoral hopes.
Galbraith said it doesn’t really matter where the Conservatives are asking for a record turnout, given that key messages from political rallies spread online with ease.
It was in Edmonton where former prime minister Stephen Harper endorsed Poilievre, “but it was broadcast across the country so it doesn’t matter where he does it any more,” she said.
