Alberta’s fall referendum could be a target for foreign interference, and the Canadian Security Intelligence Service is monitoring the risks, the agency says in a new letter to the leader of the Alberta NDP.
Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi posted the letter online in a social media post on Sunday. He said he wrote to CSIS in June to ask for regular updates about any foreign governments attempting to influence the outcome of the province’s Oct. 19 referendum.
In an interview with CBC News on Monday, Nenshi said members of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration publicly commenting on the possibility of an independent Alberta, along with a privacy breach of Alberta voters’ information, prompted him to ask the federal agency for reassurance and information.
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“We know that there is a very real risk of foreign interference in this referendum,” he said. “The separatists have not been shy about saying that they’ve been actively seeking support from the United States.”
In a letter to Nenshi dated July 27, CSIS director Dan Rogers said the agency will investigate any threats of foreign states attempting to interfere with Canadian democratic processes, including the October referendum in Alberta.
“Democratic events such as the upcoming referendum could create the conditions foreign actors seek to exploit, such as through the use of mis- and disinformation, to advance a narrative aligned with their objectives,” the letter says.
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As of publication, CSIS had not responded to questions sent to the agency by CBC News on Monday.
Rogers has previously said a divisive issue such as an independence vote is a particularly attractive target for foreign actors.
CSIS director says Alberta referendum vulnerable to foreign interference
Rogers’ letter did not address the information privacy breach involving the province’s voter list. Elections Alberta, the province’s privacy commissioner and the RCMP are all investigating allegations that a pro-independence group called the Centurion Project obtained and misused a list of electors that had originally been legitimately provided to the Republican Party of Alberta.
Both political organizations have denied any wrongdoing.
Nenshi said he feels satisfied that CSIS is taking the threat seriously and is asking members of the public to disclose any evidence they may have of attempted manipulation.
Some United Conservative Party (UCP) members have demanded that Alberta’s UCP government hold an independence referendum, and a citizen initiative petition effort proposing such a vote is caught in legal wrangling.
Premier Danielle Smith in May announced she would add a question to an October referendum already planned, including nine other questions about immigration and jurisdictional tussles between Alberta and the federal government.
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The additional question is, “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
Although public opinion polling suggests the majority of Albertans would vote to remain in Canada, Nenshi says a low voter turnout could put that result at risk.
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“The separatists may not be high in number, but they are very motivated,” he said. “Every single one of them will vote. They will walk over broken glass to vote.”
Jean-Christophe Boucher, an associate professor of political science at the University of Calgary who studies foreign interference, said the province does not have the resources to identify and combat foreign interference.
Alberta’s Provincial Security and Intelligence Office (PSIO) has a mandate broader than just foreign interference, he said, and the handful of people dedicated to that focus is inadequate, he said.
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The easiest, lowest-risk approach to meddle in a vote is the creation of social media posts to amplify misinformation and divisive narratives, Boucher said.
“Democracies live from information and on sane debate,” Boucher said in a Monday interview from Scotland. “And if you have foreign actors kind of trying to … steer to debate or pollute the debate in that process, then the democratic process kind of gets polluted and corrupted.”
Boucher said, come September, Albertans are likely to see influencers begin testing messages to sway referendum voters, likely in the form of videos and podcast episodes, to push a pro-separatist message.
“I think what we’re going to see is essentially a manipulation of discourses or narratives that try to promote separation that won’t be genuine, or won’t reflect the real weight of that argument within the ecosystem,” Boucher said.
Global Affairs Canada, the RCMP and Elections Alberta are among the other agencies responsible for thwarting attempted foreign interference.
In a statement on Monday, the premier’s press secretary, Sam Blackett, said the Opposition is “fearmongering,” and ignoring the government’s work to tackle foreign interference.
“Our priority remains protecting Albertans, and we hope the NDP can put political games aside and support us in that mission,” Blackett wrote.
The province’s security and intelligence office (PSIO) is monitoring internal and external threats, co-ordinating with national security agencies, and reporting any concerns to the RCMP for investigation, Blackett’s statement said.
Smith also obtained top-secret national security clearance in May to receive briefings from CSIS. Blackett said the government won’t comment on the content of any of those briefings.
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The premier has also tapped Public Safety and Emergency Services Minister Mike Ellis and Technology and Innovation Minister Nate Glubish with monitoring “influence campaigns targeting the province,” Blackett wrote.
