Western Canadian oil production can grow by about one million barrels per day over the next seven years, driven mainly by expansions to existing steam-driven oilsands projects, says a new report from Enverus Intelligence Research.
But it can take years to plan and build such projects, so producers have a limited ability to take advantage of the surge in global crude oil prices driven by the war in the Middle East, said the report released Tuesday.
West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery was trading at around $90 US per barrel around midday — off from the $114 US mark it hit earlier in the conflict, but still 33 per cent higher than it was before the war began in late February.
Enverus says the oilsands have 50 years worth of drilling opportunities that break even below a $50-per-barrel US WTI price.
“The Canadian oilsands is one of the most compelling long-cycle resources in North America, combining exceptional inventory depth with competitive sustaining economics,” said Dane Gregoris, managing director at the research firm.
But he also said at projected growth rates, available pipeline space to move Western Canadian crude to market will be filled up by the early 2030s. That includes recently announced expansions to existing pipeline networks.
“Given the historically long lead times for greenfield pipeline projects, we believe it is prudent to begin that planning and permitting process now,” Gregoris said.
The Alberta government is preparing an application to the major projects office for a new bitumen pipeline to the West Coast that would enable greater volumes of oilsands crude to reach Asian markets. The major projects office was set up last year to speed along infrastructure developments deemed in the national interest.
The provincial government has said it is spearheading the proposal for now because the private sector is reluctant to take on the risk of such a project, with past attempts stymied by prolonged regulatory reviews, court battles and environmental opposition.
A sweeping energy accord signed late last year between Ottawa and Alberta lays out a path for a new B.C. pipeline to be dubbed a national-interest project. But conditions upon which a new pipeline hinges, including an agreement on the Pathways carbon and storage project, remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, pipeline builders Enbridge Inc. and South Bow Corp. are working on expansions to existing networks that would see more crude flow south of the border. Federally owned Trans Mountain Corp. is looking to boost the amount of oilsands crude it currently ships to the Vancouver area, mainly for export to Asia.
