Politicians return to Queen’s Park Monday for a shortened spring session, as Premier Doug Ford prepares to unveil his eight budget amid heightened global economic uncertainty.
The legislature returns a month later than usual after the Progressive Conservatives delayed the resumption of the session. The Tories will kick off the sitting by outlining their annual spending plan on Thursday.
Experts say the budget comes at a time of heightened economic volatility because of the war in Iran, continued U.S. tariffs and stubbornly high unemployment in Ontario that has been steadily rising since mid-2023.
Ford says his focus this session — and that of his spending plan — will be on protecting the economy, a continuation of the theme that helped him win a third straight majority government a year ago.
“It’s all about protecting communities, protecting their jobs,” Ford said last week. “It’s about the economy, making sure people can bring home a paycheque. It’s absolutely critical.”
“And this tariff fight isn’t over,” he added.
Students at Queen’s Park protest Ford’s OSAP cuts
It’s not immediately clear if the spring budget will contain another round of tariff relief measures. In the 2025 budget, the province pledged $14 billion, most in the form of tax deferrals to provide cash flow to companies hard-hit by the tariffs.
The tariffs have had an impact on the economy, with tens of thousands of layoffs in the auto, steel and aluminum sectors.
Ontario’s former chief economist Brian Lewis said he expects the government will build in a large contingency fund to the budget in an effort to address the global uncertainty. In the 2025 budget, the government included a $2-billion contingency to provide flexibility, in addition to the tariff relief measures.
“I think one of the key things I will be looking for in the budget next week is how much of a prudence cushion have they worked in,” Lewis said, pointing to the continued tariffs and tense CUSMA renegotiations set for the summer.
“I think they would be well-served by being explicitly quite prudent in this budget,” Lewis.
Contingency planning will hem the government in on its plan to balance the budget by 2027-2028, Lewis said.
Last year, Ontario ran a deficit over $13.5 billion and is projected to be nearly $8 billion in the red this year, before the government says it will return to the black next year.
Lewis doesn’t see the province sticking to its path to balance given the global volatility.
“I think the most likely thing is (they’ll need) a bit more time to get back to balance,” he said. “The reason they’ll offer is, ‘we needed to invest more money in people and the economy in these troubled times.’”
Ontario’s independent fiscal watchdog has also warned that the province sticking to its path to balance is unlikely, projecting the Ford government will not balance the books during its third term. The government has been estimating lower levels of spending in key areas like health care and higher revenues than the Financial Accountability Office has in their reports.
Conservative strategist Sam Duncan, who used to work in Ford’s office, said the trade war and economic uncertainty means challenges are mounting for the government.
And difficult choices lie ahead for the premier, who will be under increasing pressure to demonstrate that he has made life more affordable, Duncan said.
“Voters are going to really start to look at governments and ask ‘what have you done?’” Duncan said. “But as people’s paycheques and people’s jobs are [in trouble], expectations of the government are raised.”
Former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy said the government will need to use both the budget and the legislative session to demonstrate progress on cost-of-living issues.
After a year talking about U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and pitching long-term projects like developing the Ring of Fire and small modular nuclear reactors to protect the province’s economy, the government is now busy trying to shine the spotlight on flashy, short-term wins, he said.
Milloy points to a string of announcements in recent weeks, like giving teachers $750 spending cards for supplies, loosening rules around high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, and further liberalizing booze laws as examples.
“It may be very cynical to say, but these kind of ‘in your face small’ measures may be politically important,” said Milloy, who is currently the director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University College.
What we know so far about Ontario’s budget: tariffs, jobs, health care
“The cost of living is out of control. We still have huge issues in health care and housing, and we haven’t seen the success that Mr. Ford offered … where are the affordability policies that are coming forward?” Milloy said.
Opposition parties at Queen’s Park have accused the premier of making the flurry of announcements to distract from affordability issues and his bid to change Ontario’s freedom of information system.
Ford’s office, his cabinet, their parliamentary assistants and all of their staff will be exempt from FOI rules under legislation the government says it will introduce this spring.
University of Ottawa political science professor Geneviève Tellier said the changes are likely to be the focus of intense criticism from the opposition during the session.
“Doug Ford wants to shield himself from scrutiny and wants to protect some communication about policy from being published,” she said.
“This is worrisome. It’s about accountability.”
Legislature staff are preparing for protests on the grounds of Queen’s Park ahead of the spring session. Last week, workers wrapped all eight statues outside the building to protect them from vandalism during anticipated demonstrations.
The George Brown monument at Queen’s Park was defaced during a protest of the Ford government’s OSAP cuts and it took crews days to clean up graffiti. The restoration cost taxpayers $5,000, house speaker Donna Skelly told CBC News.
Green party Leader Mike Schreiner said he’s hopeful cooler heads prevail during the spring session, but he thinks the protests are a sign public frustration with the government is growing.
“I would say to folks, let’s not do any damage … statues around the legislature, taking precautions around that, I think, is a prudent move,” Schreiner said.
“But we would not be in this position if we had a government that actually put everyday people ahead of the wealthy and well-connected.”
