Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will take to the stage Friday for what could be one of the most important speeches of his political career as he tries to convince delegates at the party’s Calgary convention to keep him in the job.
That speech, which is slated to begin around 8:30 p.m. ET, will focus on issues he’s championed that resonate most with disaffected voters: curbing immigration, cracking down on crime and tackling cost of living and affordability concerns.
And as the Alberta separatist movement becomes more of a force with a possible provincial referendum pending, Poilievre is also expected to address feelings of alienation in his remarks to a crowd with strong western representation.
Like Prime Minister Mark Carney, who crafted his speech in Davos himself, Poilievre is personally writing and revising much of what will he will say on stage, sources close to the leader told CBC News.
Poilievre will likely point to the successes he’s had as leader, namely expanding the Conservative coalition to include many more young and working-class voters. While Poilievre fell short in the general election and lost his own Ottawa-area seat to a Liberal, the party did win its highest vote share in a generation on his watch.
But after three recent defections — two floor crossings and one resignation — there was a pervasive fear among delegates who spoke to CBC News on the first day of the convention there could be another shock departure this weekend, just as the party is trying to get members to rally around Poilievre.
Another MP jumping ship to the Liberals would be a disastrous development and upend Poilievre’s attempt to project unity and strength after a rocky year.
Not to mention another MP joining Prime Minister Mark Carney’s team — plus a Liberal byelection win in Chrystia Freeland’s former Toronto-area seat she recently vacated — would deliver a majority government and possibly leave the Conservatives on the Opposition benches for years.
MP Melissa Lantsman, the party’s deputy leader, spoke Thursday about the need to back Poilievre to quiet the naysayers.
“We are united. Our movement is united and our party is united,” she told delegates, urging them not to listen to outside voices who she said are trying to divide the party.
After Poilievre’s hour-long remarks tonight, delegates will have two hours to vote in the leadership review that will decide his fate — and the results of that secret ballot will be announced sometime later in the evening. The ballots from the roughly 2,500 delegates will be counted by hand, which could make for a long night.
Under rules spelled out in the Conservative constitution, a leader who loses a general election must go through this sort of review if they don’t resign.
Delegates, who are generally elected by fellow Conservatives in the electoral district associations where they reside, will decide whether they “wish to engage the leadership selection process” when they get into the voting booth, according to the party rules.
A clear majority of delegates are expected to endorse Poilievre staying on as leader.
There are few, if any, public signs of dissension among those who have travelled here to Calgary — many were wearing “united” and “united with Pierre” buttons on their lanyards.
But the margin matters. Some party sources have floated 84 per cent as a figure Poilievre should reach — that’s what former prime minister Stephen Harper got in his 2005 leadership review after he lost his first campaign.
Other figures in the party are confident Poilievre can do better than that, but are reluctant to give a number in case he falls short.
There’s also always a chance the vote could go sideways.
Joe Clark faced a very different party electorate when Progressive Conservatives subjected him to a leadership review in 1983. But, like now, some members were frustrated with often falling short to the Liberals and underperforming in Quebec. Clark ultimately got 67 per cent of the vote and stepped down after receiving what he perceived as a weak mandate.
In that case, the swap worked to the party’s benefit: Brian Mulroney took over and the PCs went on to win one of the largest majority governments in Canadian history.
NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was dealing with a much more fractious party than the one Poilievre leads now but his stunning result — he failed to win a majority of delegates — is an example of what can happen when disaffected members turn out in force.
And, like Poilievre, Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie led her party to defeat in the last provincial election and lost her own riding — she drew only 57 per cent support in her review and subsequently resigned.
But Poilievre loyalists insist that’s not likely the outcome in this vote. The combination of a publicly unified caucus and the favourable demographics of the delegates here — Calgary is Poilievre’s hometown after all — bodes well. And then there’s the reason why so many party members were drawn to him in the first place: few Conservatives have ever been as effective in prosecuting Liberal failures.
Former interim leader Rona Ambrose endorsed Poilievre in a video Thursday ahead of the vote. Her message reflects what many delegates like about him as leader.
Poilievre is a “fighter who takes every challenge head on,” she said.
