Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s fate will be put to delegates at the party’s convention in Calgary on Friday. While those around him are confident he can avoid being turfed, the leader’s loyalists are doing all they can to ensure he easily clears this must-win vote.
Poilievre has been busy working the phones and dropping in to ridings across the country to meet members who will decide if the party stays the course or holds a new leadership election.
“Essentially the only people Pierre’s been speaking to over the last number of weeks are delegates. He’s leaving nothing to chance,” said one senior Conservative source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal party dynamics.
Poilievre needs a majority of delegates to vote no on triggering what the party calls a leadership selection process to hang on to his position, but barely clearing 50 per cent would be catastrophic.
All eyes are on the margin. If a sizable number of delegates want to go in a different direction, Poilievre could face questions about his viability.
One party source said Poilievre must do as well as former prime minister Stephen Harper did in his 2005 review — 84 per cent of the 2,900 delegates endorsed his leadership — to quiet the naysayers.
Asked in an interview what percentage Poilievre needs to get to keep his job, Conservative MP Andrew Scheer, the party’s House leader and a close confidant of Poilievre, wouldn’t give a specific number.
“I just want a great result. Our caucus is united. We’re focused,” Scheer said, while noting Poilievre is appealing to new voters and many of the delegates will be first-timers. “We’ll see what happens in Calgary but I’m optimistic.”
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“I’m not giving up. I don’t quit,” Poilievre himself said in a social media video ahead of Friday’s vote. “I’m going to keep on fighting for the Canadian people and their chance to have an affordable, safe future.”
Convention turnout is an open question and the party said it won’t confirm final delegate figures until Friday.
What is known is the event is being held in a Prairie city friendly to Poilievre — Calgary is his hometown — far from eastern and central population centres where his support is weaker.
This meeting is also being held on the same weekend the Ontario Progressive Conservatives are gathering for their own convention, which is likely to Poilievre’s benefit given tension between the federal and provincial parties.
According to a membership list shared with CBC News, there were roughly 350 prospective delegates from Quebec as of last week, a number that is expected to fluctuate.
One party source from the province said fewer than that figure are expected to attend and vote in the review. Ridings in that province could have sent as many as 936 delegates given each electoral district is allocated up to 12 spots.
That expected low Quebec turnout also likely bodes well for Poilievre given how relatively unpopular he is in that province, according to recent polls.
Poilievre had some success in the last campaign — the party had its best vote share result in a generation after it made gains among young people and blue-collar workers in particular. On Poilievre’s watch, the party also picked up seats and broke through in suburban Toronto ridings that the Liberals had on lock for years.
But his detractors say there isn’t much more to celebrate: the party blew a huge pre-election polling lead and ultimately went down to a Liberal political neophyte.
Poilievre lost his own long-held seat and only returned to Parliament after decamping to one of the safest Conservative ridings in the country. The party subsequently lost three MPs after two floor-crossings and a turbulent resignation announcement.
Former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole wrote in The Walrus this week that 2025 was the party’s “annus horribilis.”
Polls also suggest Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval ratings have held steady or improved since the April election.
A Leger poll published Wednesday shows the Liberals are riding high with 47 per cent of the vote among decided voters compared to 38 per cent for the Conservatives — a figure that suggests a majority Liberal government is within reach.
According to Abacus Data, Poilievre’s personal ratings have reached their lowest point since the polling firm started tracking that data in mid-2023.
Still, Abacus also found Poilievre enjoys broad support among the party’s base, which is attracted to his populist brand of conservatism that is laser-focused on crime, immigration, affordability and prosecuting Liberal failures.
Unlike past leaders O’Toole and Scheer, Poilievre is also not grappling with any meaningful internal opposition.
Conservative caucus members have said virtually nothing negative about Poilievre publicly, although one told CBC News they will go public with their criticisms if Poilievre puts up a poor result in the review.
“Some people are not happy and I think that’s going to be reflected in the vote. You don’t know what supposedly loyal people are going to do in the privacy of the voting booth,” said this Conservative, while adding Poilievre is pining for a time before U.S. President Donald Trump upended Canadian politics.
“Pierre has learned no lessons and he’s doing the same things he’s always done. He just wants to go back and pretend it’s October 2024.”
Sebastian Skamski, a former spokesperson for Poilievre, said all is not lost for the Conservative team.
While Trump’s threats dominate the headlines, poll after poll shows affordability and cost of living concerns are also top of mind for voters and Poilievre is a very effective messenger on that issue, Skamski said in an interview.
“While Prime Minister Carney can speak with highfalutin terms and get applause lines in Davos, for the average Canadian it’s difficult to see how that connects back to their paycheque and their ability to put food on the table,” he said.
“Poilievre can offer a vision of hope and opportunity.”
Plus, Poilievre still enjoys broad support among members because he has been able to breathe new life into the party and cobble together a coalition of voters that was unthinkable only a few years ago, he said.
Poilievre is resonating strongly with young and working-class people who are feeling the effects of inflation most acutely, he said.
“This is a guy who has been battle-tested, who has a campaign under his belt. He has greatly motivated some Canadians — giant swaths of Canadians are ready to vote for his vision. It’s not as bad as the Liberals and the commentariat class makes it out to be,” Skamski said.
Poilievre has tapped his former campaign manager, Jenni Byrne, to help plan this convention and corral delegates to secure a successful outcome.
While Byrne stepped back from the day-to-day operations of the leader’s office after the election, she is still a trusted lieutenant and party adviser, albeit a controversial one among some MPs.
The minutes of the party’s last national council meeting in December obtained by CBC News show she served as Poilievre’s personal representative as the board convened to discuss issues like nomination rules.
Byrne was there in the same capacity at the meeting before that one, too, said a member of the national council.
“Some of us were told she wouldn’t be involved anymore, and she was there, obviously,” said this councillor. “It’s always her, speaking for the leader. Some things don’t change.”
