Quebec’s political landscape is in flux following Premier François Legault’s surprise resignation last week after more than seven years in power.
Legault, who founded the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in 2011 and led it to two majority governments in 2018 and 2022, cited plummeting support and a desire for change among Quebecers as reasons for stepping down.
He will remain in office until the CAQ chooses a new leader, with the next provincial election scheduled for Oct. 5.
Recent polls show the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the lead, promising a sovereignty referendum within the next term, while both the CAQ and the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) will be choosing new leaders amid internal challenges.
Even as they are in the process of electing a new leader, the Quebec Liberals are polling higher than the CAQ.
Québec Solidaire (QS) continues to struggle in the polls with co-spokespeople Ruba Ghazal and Sol Zanetti at the helm.
So, where do Quebec’s political parties stand now?
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the PQ, said Legault’s departure signals it is time for a change in government and an independent Quebec.
The PQ currently holds six seats, up from three in 2022 after winning three back-to-back byelections in Jean-Talon, Terrebonne and Arthabaska.
Support for independence remains at around 35 per cent and it has proven particularly popular among younger Quebecers.
According to a survey conducted by CROP between July and August among 1,000 Quebecers, 56% of them aged 18 to 34 said they are in favour of independence, a notable increase that has not been seen for 30 years.
St-Pierre Plamondon has criticized what is often described as Legault’s “third way,” which, according to him, consists of putting Quebec’s interests first without pushing for its independence. The PQ leader said: “it’s either the status quo and the decline that comes with it, or independence.”
He has called for a spring election rather than waiting for the fall.
“If François Legault wanted to show that the sovereignty debate should be put on hold, he has ultimately shown the very opposite: that the debate over sovereignty is indeed a matter of the nation’s survival,” said St-Pierre Plamondon.
The latest Pallas Data poll, which surveyed more than 1,100 Quebecers between Jan. 9 and 10, placed Legault and his party at only 10 per cent of voting intentions.
This is indicative of a steady decline in support in recent years as the CAQ has faced significant criticism over failures such as the SAAQclic fiasco and the Northvolt deal.
The CAQ won 90 of the 125 National Assembly seats in the 2022 election, but that number has dropped to 79.
The party aims to select a new leader by mid-April 2026 to prepare for the fall election, but no formal rules were initially in place as this is the CAQ’s first leadership contest since its founding.
At least 10 members of the party are believed to be considering a run for leadership, including Finance Minister Eric Girard and Christine Fréchette, Quebec’s Minister of Economy, Innovation and Energy.
“I see that my name has been circulating since Premier Legault’s announcement, so I wanted to inform you that I am beginning a process of reflection on my part,” said Fréchette.
The PLQ is in the midst of a leadership race following the resignation of Pablo Rodriguez in December amid an alleged pay-for-votes scheme, outrage over the scandal, and multiple caucus expulsions. Marc Tanguay has been serving as the interim leader of the party.
Among those running is Charles Milliard, the former CEO of Quebec’s federation of chambers of commerce and a pharmacist by training. It’s his second bid for leadership of the party.
Mario Roy, a farmer and economist who also ran last time and received less than one per cent of the vote, has also thrown his hat into the ring. While others are considering running, some potential candidates, including Karl Blackburn, the former head of the Conseil du patronat du Québec, have said they won’t run.
Back in October 2025, a Léger poll found 25 per cent of Quebec voters supported the PLQ. But that number dropped to 21 per cent in December when the scandal began to unfold.
The PLQ holds 18 seats, down from 21 in 2022.
Québec Solidaire has been falling in the polls. Currently, the QS party holds 11 seats and some surveys predict that it will lose seats in the next election.
A Léger poll conducted in October estimates that six per cent of voters will choose QS, down from around 15 per cent in 2022.
Ghazal and Zanetti took over in November 2024, with the party emphasizing feminism, independence, environmentalism and workers’ rights.
Manon Massé, the MNA for the central Montreal riding of Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques and former co-spokesperson of Québec Solidaire, announced in October that she is stepping back from politics and will not run again in the 2026 provincial election.
Her announcement came months after Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois stepped down as co-spokesperson of the party and announced he would also not be running in the next provincial election — saying internal party strife in recent years contributed to his decision.
QS had a disappointing showing in the Terrebonne byelection, where it received less than five per cent of the vote — compared to around 13 per cent in the 2022 general election.
