The Canadian Armed Forces would need to buy 72 Gripen fighter jets and six GlobalEye surveillance aircraft for Swedish manufacturer Saab to deliver on its pledge of creating 12,600 jobs in Canada, CBC News has learned.
Government and industry sources said Saab’s proposals for both aircraft are currently being studied by experts in defence matters and economic benefits in Ottawa.
Top officials from Saab said late last year that they could create about 10,000 jobs in Canada, but the exact size of the aircraft orders required to reach that number had not yet been made public.
The Swedish company’s projects are being met with considerable interest within the Carney government, which is seeking to diversify Canada’s source of military equipment and strengthen the industrial sector battered by tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
“The government is interested in all major projects that can not only protect Canada’s security and sovereignty, but also create jobs across the country,” Industry Minister Mélanie Joly told CBC News.
“We certainly can’t control President Trump, but … we can control our defence investments, who we award contracts to and how we are ultimately able to create jobs in Canada. So we’re going to focus on that.”
Saab confirmed that the promise of 12,600 jobs is linked to the sale of Gripen and GlobalEye aircraft to Canada.
“Saab remains ready to support the government of Canada with sovereign, cutting-edge solutions for the Canadian Armed Forces that will grow domestic industry,” said Simon Carroll, president of Saab Canada.
The purchase of a Gripen fleet would necessarily have an impact on Canada’s plans to buy 88 American F-35 aircraft, ordered in 2022 at a cost now estimated to be more than $27 billion.
Although Canada has been reviewing the F-35 purchase since the spring, various sources say it is still too early to conclude whether Canada will reduce its order or by how much.
For now, Canada is preparing to receive 16 F-35s starting this year, and many military experts are raising questions about Canada’s ability to integrate two new fighter fleets at the same time. Defence industry experts are also saying that Saab’s jobs promises will need further scrutiny or explanations.
F-35 manufacturer Lockheed Martin says it also has significant economic benefits to offer in Canada, promising $15 billion in work if Canada maintains its full order. Discussions between the Canadian government and Lockheed Martin are ongoing, Joly said this week.
By setting up factories in Canada, Saab would produce fighter jets and surveillance aircraft for both the Royal Canadian Air Force and the export market.
Ukraine has shown interest for more than 100 Gripens, while potential customers for the GlobalEye include France and Germany.
To create more than 10,000 direct and indirect jobs in Canada, Saab plans production centres in Ontario and Quebec with a pan-Canadian supplier network.
The GlobalEye aircraft would be produced in collaboration with Bombardier, whose Global 6500 jets offer the platform on which numerous surveillance systems and radars are installed. In Canada, the project is known as the airborne early warning and control (AEWAC) system.
Canada’s defence spending is expected to increase by $82 billion over the next five years, and the federal government wants these investments to have the greatest possible economic impact on the country. There is a sense in Ottawa that the recent appointment of a new deputy minister at the Department of National Defence, Christiane Fox, sends a signal that the government wants to change the mindset at the top of Canada’s military apparatus.
Still, Justin Massie, a military analyst at the Université du Québec à Montréal, said the federal government should not make the decision to acquire 72 Gripen aircraft based on jobs.
“We need to have a number that is based on military considerations, and that doesn’t seem to be the case at the moment. It seems that economic and political considerations are guiding this choice,” he said.
Massie added that there is no guarantee the Americans would agree to integrate Swedish-made Gripens into NORAD’s defence systems.
“If all this is just to have a fleet of 16 [F-35s], it’s completely pointless from a military point of view,” said Massie.
While there are many unanswered questions on the military front, there is evidence that Saab’s public relations campaign in Canada has been successful.
According to an Ekos survey released last month, 43 per cent of Canadians want the federal government to acquire a fleet of Gripen fighters to replace its aging CF-18s, while 29 per cent are in favour of a mixed fleet made up of Gripens and American-built F-35s.
The option of a single fleet of F-35s was the least popular choice in the survey, at 13 per cent support.
Quebec and British Columbia are the two provinces where purchasing a fleet of F-35s is the least popular option (nine per cent), while the option is most popular in the Atlantic provinces (16 per cent) and in Alberta (18 per cent).
Support for a mixed fleet is strongest in Quebec at 35 per cent, while support for a fleet composed solely of Gripens peaked at 49 per cent in British Columbia.
Weighing Canada’s fighter jet options: F-35 vs Gripen
Respondents’ preferences on fighter jets varied by political affiliation.
The F-35 was most popular among supporters of the Conservative Party of Canada, with 30 per cent of them supporting the purchase of a single fleet. Among supporters of other parties, support for the acquisition of a single fleet of F-35s ranged from three per cent to seven per cent.
Purchasing a Gripen fleet was the top choice for supporters of the NDP (60 per cent) and the Liberal Party (51 per cent).
Supporters of the Bloc Québécois were the most likely (36 per cent) to support the purchase of a mixed fleet made up of F-35s and Gripens.
The Ekos survey was conducted with a probability-based research panel of 2,024 respondents from Nov. 28 to Dec. 10. The margin of error with a sample of this size is plus or minus 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Regional results have a higher margin of error given the smaller sample size. The poll was funded solely by Ekos and not commissioned by a third party.
In his analysis of the results, Ekos president Frank Graves said Ottawa faces a challenge if it decides to purchase only F-35s, explaining that Canadians’ perception of the fighter is closely linked to their views of Trump.
“This puts the government in an awkward position. This debate a year ago would have been fairly straightforward if they wanted to go with the F-35,” said Graves.
He said the debate between the Gripen and the F-35 is not so much about the aircraft’s technical capabilities, but rather about Canada’s alliances in a context of massive increases in its military budget.
“The one area where Canadians say they want to strengthen the relationships, even more so, is anything European,” said Graves.
After running a competition between the F-35 and the Gripen, the government of Canada opted for the F-35 in 2023. The choice was based on technical capabilities, cost and economic benefits.
According to data obtained by Radio-Canada/CBC News, the F-35 was dominant in the technical phase of the 2021 competition that measured the capabilities of each aircraft in different military missions.
