Ontario New Democrats will pass judgment on Marit Stiles’s leadership this weekend in a mandatory review that comes just one week after a similar vote by provincial Liberals forced the resignation of their party head.
Stiles said that she isn’t taking anything for granted when it comes to the review, but has heard no rumblings that her job is in jeopardy. That’s in contrast to Bonnie Crombie, who faced an internal challenge to unseat her as she headed into a party gathering last weekend, and resigned hours after receiving only 57 per cent support from delegates.
Stiles said she spent the summer checking in with party members across the province, stopping in about 50 ridings during a tour.
“I’m feeling really good about it,” she said of the review vote. “I never take anything for granted, of course, but we are coming together to mobilize and to organize and to win.”
The leadership review comes more than six months after the NDP placed second in seat count in a snap vote called by Doug Ford. The premier won his third straight majority government in an election dominated by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the trade war between the U.S. and Canada.
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The NDP held onto 27 seats, down four from the previous vote in 2022. They remain the official opposition. But the New Democrats finished a disappointing third in the popular vote with 18 per cent, well back of the Ontario Liberals who finished with nearly 30 per cent, but only 14 seats.
The Liberals now find themselves with an uncertain future, about to launch a new leadership race. Stiles said it will be important for the NDP to remain focused on the needs of voters, not their own internal party dynamics.
“They have to do some soul searching to figure out who they are,” she said of the Ontario Liberals.
“People need to know they’ve got someone in their corner. And so I think that stability is going to be really important right now,” she said of her own party.
NDP strategist Mélanie Richer, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies, said she doesn’t anticipate Stiles faces any internal move to push her out as leader. She’d like to see the provincial party focus on fighting the “progressive primary” against the Liberals now, and not waiting until the next election.
That means increasing Stiles’s profile across Ontario in the coming months and developing policy that positions the party as the government in waiting.
“They need to work to be the viable alternative to Premier Ford and to the Progressive Conservatives,” she said. “And the story cannot be who’s runner up?”
NDP strategist Erin Morrison said the “chaos” within the Ontario Liberal Party gives the New Democrats an opportunity to establish themselves as the central opposition voice to the Ford government. She expects Stiles will strike that tone this weekend in her remarks to delegates at the convention.
“Marit Stiles has a big opportunity,” said Morrison, a vice president at Texture Communications. “This is the moment for her. She’s got to capitalize, and she can capitalize by being loud, by being strong, and by focusing on solutions.”
Stiles was acclaimed as leader in 2023, replacing Andrea Horwath who had led the party since 2009. This will be the New Democrats’ first in-person convention since 2019, and Stiles’s first since becoming leader.
McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe said he expects Stiles will survive the weekend vote, but doesn’t see much excitement for her within the party at the moment.
“It’s not clear to me that there’s a lot of enthusiasm for Marit Stiles, even among the grassroots of the NDP,” he said. “She may win the vote. I think the question is, is she winning the hearts of her members and her grassroots base, for them to go out and do the work necessary if the NDP is going to improve their standing?”
Former federal NDP leader Thomas Mulcair’s surprising ouster during a party review in 2016 also looms as a cautionary tale in the party’s recent history. The vote stunned pundits and party members alike, and Trent University political science professor Cristine de Clercy said leaders can’t assume any leadership review is a foregone conclusion.
“I think it’s worth remembering that the parties are very closed circuit internal organizations,” she said. “It’s difficult for us on the outside to know exactly what’s going on on the inside. Who’s in charge, who’s dissatisfied, who’s satisfied?”
Richer was part of Mulcair’s tour team in 2016 and was present for the vote that cost him his job. She said the hard lesson learned during that experience was that a leader needs to get in front of people unhappy with the status quo after a disappointing loss, like the federal NDP suffered in the 2015 election.
She thinks Stiles has done that this summer, she said.
“You’ve got to meet with people who don’t understand the direction you’re going and who aren’t necessarily pleased with the result,” she said. “You have to give them a game plan of what comes next.”
Stiles is expected to address delegates at this weekend’s convention in Niagara Falls, Ont., on Saturday. The results of the leadership review are expected to be released that day.
