Food prices in Canada could increase by four to six per cent next year, largely driven by pricier meat products, according to a forecast by researchers at Dalhousie University.
Beef in particular is expected to get more expensive, potentially rising seven per cent, as cattle sizes shrink (those markets are susceptible to tariffs) and more ranchers leave the industry, said the research team behind Canada’s Food Price Report.
Tightened beef supply is expected to last through 2027, though the country has upped its import volume to deal with those challenges, according to the forecast.
“We’re expecting another difficult year due to beef prices and, because people are pivoting towards chicken, chicken prices are also on the rise,” said Sylvain Charlebois, director of the university’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab and lead author of the report.
“So that’s why the entire category will actually be more expensive, unfortunately.”
Meanwhile, food products usually found in the middle section of a grocery store could get more expensive after years of stagnant prices, he said. That includes pantry staples like canned goods.
“Typically the centre of the store is a go-to place for people who are seeking harbour … from inflation,” he said. “That’s not going to be the case in 2026.”
Generally, several factors could contribute to grocery inflation over the next 12 months, according to the Food Price Report — among them the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S., changes to the food manufacturing landscape and other economic factors, like labour conditions.
Roughly a quarter of Canadians live in food-insecure households, according to Food Banks Canada, meaning that they have inadequate access to food for financial reasons.
Neil Hetherington, CEO of the Daily Bread Food Bank in Toronto, said his organization now serves 330,000 clients a month — a figure that hovered around the 60,000 mark before the pandemic.
“We’re not adding more food. What we’re seeing is more clients,” said Hetherington, who works with about 14,000 volunteers across the city.
“The number of clients here in Toronto could fill the Rogers Centre eight times every single month. That’s how many people we’re feeding.”
With food prices generally trending upward since April 2024, many consumers say they’re already feeling the strain. Those who spoke to CBC News were dismayed by the prospect of more price growth at the grocery store.
Toronto resident Sabra Al-Harthi said she’s considering buying meat less frequently. “I think I might just cut off the meat a little bit; make it a weekend thing.”
Canadian retail beef price hits record high, forcing some shoppers to ditch steak
Meanwhile, Giacomo LoGiacco said he’s splurging less on food. “I work a full-time job in a factory and I’m barely scraping by. I live paycheque to paycheque,” he said.
“Sometimes I only get something on sale, but I’m only getting, like, milk, eggs, bread — the essentials.”
