Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s path back to the House of Commons runs through a rural Alberta riding that has become a hotbed for Western discontent and the independence movement — a potentially tricky situation to navigate for a leader with national ambitions.
Poilievre, a Calgarian by birth who has lived away from Alberta for more than two decades, is running in the Aug. 18 byelection in Battle River-Crowfoot, a sprawling riding in the province’s east where the oil and gas industry is a major employer. It includes the small town of Hardisty, which sits at the nexus of the North American oil pipeline system and is home to a huge petroleum tank farm.
The riding is easily one of the most Conservative in the country. In the last general election, nearly 83 per cent of voters there cast a ballot for Damien Kurek, who stepped aside to give Poilievre a chance to get back into Parliament after he lost his own Ontario seat to a Liberal. Only one other federal riding, Souris-Moose Mountain in Saskatchewan, delivered a higher share of the vote to a Conservative candidate.
Months after former prime minister Justin Trudeau resigned, homes and trucks still display “F–k Trudeau” signs, flags and decals — a testament to just how unpopular the last Liberal leader’s environmental policies and COVID measures were among some in this riding.
While Poilievre faces only token partisan opposition in this byelection, there’s another challenge: How he contends with an increasingly vocal separatist movement in the Conservative heartland.
Jeffrey Rath is a leader of the Alberta Prosperity Project. The group is trying to build support for an independent Alberta, which the province’s premier says is at an all-time high. A recent poll found support at about 30 per cent.
In an interview with CBC News, Rath said the byelection outcome is not in doubt.
“People can’t stomach voting for anyone else,” he said.
Still, Rath said, independence-minded voters are looking for substantive answers from Poilievre on the issues they care about most, namely how Alberta can be better treated in a federation some feel isn’t working for them anymore.
He predicts Poilievre will sidestep controversial issues and a close association with separatist voices so he can go back to Ottawa and vie for national power without any Alberta baggage.
“Poilievre ran in the last election against the end of equalization. The dairy cartel-mafia has gotten to him — he says he’s not going to touch supply management,” Rath said.
“He’s pandering to Ontario and Quebec and I can tell you, a lot of Albertans, we’re sick of it.”
Rath, a First Nations rights lawyer who has floated the idea of Alberta joining the U.S., also objects to what he perceives as Poilievre’s hostility toward President Donald Trump.
He said Poilievre should be looking to build bridges with Trump given the importance of the Canada-U.S. trading relationship.
“He’s sycophantically following the Liberals, trying to beat them at their own game,” Rath said. “People in Alberta aren’t overly impressed with Pierre right now.”
Rath wants a more aggressive stance on equalization in particular — long vilified in Alberta as sucking money out of the rich West.
The federal program is designed to ensure all parts of the country have roughly the same level of public services by transferring money to places determined to be “have-not” provinces.
Funded from the federal government’s general revenues (such as federal income tax), provinces do not contribute to the program. Poilievre has promised not to make any “big changes” to the regime, if he forms a government.
“These places need to operate within their own means to stop bleeding Alberta dry. Those days are over,” Rath said. “If you can’t say you’re going to fight against equalization then you don’t belong in Alberta.
“Get the hell out. We don’t want you anymore.”
Rath also wants Poilievre to back Senate reform, saying it’s unconscionable that Alberta, with some five million people, only has six seats in the Red Chamber while P.E.I. and its roughly 180,000 people are represented by four senators. This constitutional arrangement has been in place for more than a century to give smaller provinces a voice in Parliament.
“He could demonstrate that he’s more than a one-trick pony stupidly repeating ‘axe the tax,'” Rath said. “But, really, what Poilievre represents is a continuation of the status quo that all of us are fed up with.”
Still, Poilievre has his supporters in the riding.
Drumheller Mayor Heather Colberg was by Poilievre’s side as he took part in the town’s Canada Day parade on Tuesday.
Canada Day parade in the heart of the Badlands — where the spirit of the West and Canadian pride runs deep.<br><br>From hard work, to our country’s western pioneer heritage, Drumheller shows what Canada’s made of. Happy Canada Day! <a href=”https://t.co/48eHYnJb0v”>pic.twitter.com/48eHYnJb0v</a>
The town of about 8,000 people, situated roughly an hour and a half northeast of Calgary, is one of the riding’s largest population centres. It’s known as the “dinosaur capital of the world,” because of its rich fossil deposits and the Royal Tyrrell Museum of Palaeontology.
Colberg said Poilievre isn’t phoning it in — he’s showing up to meet voters and hear their concerns, which she said are focused on fairness for Alberta.
In addition to Drumheller, Poilievre was also in Hanna, wearing a red and white “Truth North, strong and free” T-shirt for the nation’s birthday, according to social media posts.
Hello from Hanna, where proud Canadians came together to celebrate our country’s 158th birthday with a picnic on a beautiful Alberta summer day.<br><br>Happy Canada Day 🇨🇦 <a href=”https://t.co/NpdUFHkDsx”>pic.twitter.com/NpdUFHkDsx</a>
Even before the byelection was called, Poilievre was stumping for votes in Camrose, Hay Lakes, Hardisty and Wainwright, among other places.
“Mr. Poilievre seems very honest and genuine,” Colberg said.
“And if Damien believes this is the right decision for our area, I trust Damien’s choice,” she said, referring to the outgoing MP.
Kurek said he wasn’t available to speak but told CBC News in a message the “good people of Battle River-Crowfoot love Pierre Poilievre.”
Poilievre’s Alberta ties are what sold Colberg on his potential as an MP for the riding.
“If somebody came from the far east and never been part of Alberta, then that would be a bit different. He does have some roots,” she said. “He understands rural Alberta. We are one of the bluest constituencies in Canada but he’s not taking that lightly and that’s huge.”
With so many local jobs tied to the energy sector, Colberg said she wants Poilievre to fight for the oil and gas industry.
She also expects Poilievre to help tell Alberta’s story to the rest of the country to try and tamp down regional resentment, saying she’s a proud Canadian who just wants Confederation to work better for her province.
“We gotta remember how blessed we are with all of these resources. We have the ability to use them to help us all, not just in Alberta,” she said.
“I love Canada and I don’t want to see it split. But at the same time there has to be somebody at the top who understands Alberta.”
Poilievre says he’s that somebody — telling reporters recently he’s against Alberta separation but understands Albertans have “a lot of legitimate grievances.”
The last Liberal government’s decision to kill one major pipeline, Northern Gateway, and tie up another, Energy East, in red tape before its eventual cancellation, plus the federal emissions cap and the industrial carbon price are the root causes of the Alberta independence movement, Poilievre said.
“Frankly, Albertans have the right to be frustrated,” he said. “They deserve to be honoured for the immense contributions they make to this country. I will be a unifier.”
A spokesperson for Poilievre did not respond to a request for a comment for this story.
Poilievre says ‘we need to unite this country,’ but Albertans ‘have a right to be frustrated’
Michael Solberg, a past political staffer and campaigner for conservative parties in Alberta and elsewhere, said the separatist movement won’t be much of a factor in Poilievre’s race.
Pointing to the recent provincial byelection in rural Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills where the separatist candidate got 18 per cent of the vote and placed third behind the NDP, Solberg said the independence movement is “far more bark than bite.”
Plus, with dozens or potentially hundreds of candidates expected on the byelection ballot as part of an electoral reform protest, anti-Poilievre choices could split the vote and dilute the power of separatists, he said.
“I’ve seen no evidence that indicates western or Alberta separation will be a hurdle for the Conservative movement here,” he said.
But Poilievre will be forced to address the core issue of the separatists, Solberg said, which is “ensuring Alberta gets a fair shake from Ottawa.”
And that’s something Poilievre can do, he said, pointing to the leader’s past ties to the Reform Party, which had “the West wants in” as its mantra in the 1990s.
“Pierre is certainly no stranger to speaking to the issues that folks care about in a riding that’s the beating heart of Conservatism,” Solberg said.
“I think this is a cakewalk scenario for him. He’s going to win in a landslide.”
